60% of French oppose Muslim refugees

January 27, 2016

Atlantico: What can we take away from this poll; in what context was it carried out?

Jérôme Fourquet : We see that the state of opinion regarding the question of welcoming refugees in France has remained stable, compared with a previous poll carried out the week after the Paris attacks.

Since April there have been three distinct periods regarding public opinion: one at the end of summer 2015, where we saw public opinion was largely against allowing refugees, as the issue began to gain attention in the media and as it began to be hotly debated in Europe. During this period only a third of Frenchmen were supportive of allowing them. A second period began the week after the photos of Aylan were published, causing a marked swing in public opinion, with one-in-two Frenchmen reacting favorably to allowing refugees. Even after the intense emotional shock the picture generated the other half remained opposed.

Public opinion remained stable for around two months, until the November 2015 attacks, with the discovery of two Syrian passports on the suicide bombers in the Stade de France. The attacks added fuel to the fire of those who were worried of possible terrorists coming arriving with the refugees. Public opinion dropped to the levels before Aylan’s photos were released.

Several days ago we reevaluated the situation two months after the November attacks. Investigations showed that there were border security issues and possible jihadist infiltration. After findings were released, and following the events in Cologne, we learned that the Goutte d’or attacker lived in a refugee camp in Germany, and that that he travelled to several European countries where he committed crimes in each.

Today 60% of respondents are opposed to welcoming refugees.

Atlantico: Do you see differences in opinion among different populations in France?

Fourquet: There is certainly a second level to the analysis: how public opinion differs among respondents according to population demographics. There is certainly a political divide, with 6-in-10 Left Front respondents favorable to welcoming refugees, while 7-in-10 Socialist Party supporters would welcome refugees. In contrast, there is a perfect and absolute asymmetry among supporters for the Republicans Party and Socialist Party: 71%-29% against and for in the Republicans Party compared with 29%-71% against and for in the Socialist Party. Right-wing supporters are extremely opposed. This may be due to recent comments made by Juppé.

The National Front was completely opposed.

Finally, one interesting point to note: we know that Catholics generally support welcoming refugees. However our practicing Catholics are divided on the question: 47% for and 53% against, percentages that have remained stable since September. Non- practicing Catholics are mostly hostile (67% opposed). The 54% of practicing non-Catholics is mostly made up of Protestants and Muslims and is the largest population to welcome them.

Link to Poll: Ifop migrants poll

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